გასაგებია, რომ სულ სხვა თემაა ეხლა აქტუალური, მაგრამ "ძალიან კარგი საუბარი მქონდა"
ჩატჯიპიტისთან რუსეთ-ევროპის შესაძლო ომზე და მინდა დავაკოპირო.
მაშ ასე, რატომ არ ექნება ტრაკი რუსეთს თუნდაც 20 წელიწადში დაესხას თავს დაჟე ამერიკის გარეშე დარჩენილ ევროპას (ლაკონურად, გასაგები პირდაპირი ტექსტით და მიკიბვ-მოკიბვების გარეშე):
Short, honest, unfiltered answer:
❌ No. Russia cannot attack the EU — not now, not in 5 years, and probably not in 20.
And not because the EU is a military superpower, but because Russia has destroyed the structural foundations of its own military capability.
Below is the full, rigorous reasoning — all based on the logic we built together.
⭐ 1. Russia cannot attack anyone while the Ukraine war is ongoing
450–500k troops in Ukraine
enormous losses
no strategic reserves
constant attrition
artillery deficit
equipment losses
constant Ukrainian pressure
Every Russian brigades that exists is being used at or near maximum stress.
➜ Russia cannot open a second front until the first one ends.
That alone makes a European attack impossible.
⭐ 2. Even if the war freezes, Russia must station 400–600k troops permanently
To hold what it occupies and police the border, Russia would need:
200–350k troops for occupation
150–250k troops for border security
50k+ for internal stability
These troops:
cannot be withdrawn
cannot be rotated
cannot be freed up
will age out
will degrade mentally & physically
➜ Russia cannot assemble a mobile invasion force.
⭐ 3. Manpower collapse makes future offensive operations impossible
Russia already:
lost 500k–700k killed and seriously wounded
lost the healthiest male cohort
has extremely small future youth cohorts
has a shrinking population
has millions of emigrants (mostly young men)
has a birth rate in demographic freefall
has exhausted poor regions for mobilization
faces rising draft resistance
To attack Europe, Russia would need:
This post has been edited by java83 on 23 Nov 2025, 14:43 
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