Five conclusions about the attempt to induce Ukraine to a surrender plan
It was a sophisticated FSB information operationAt the moment when the corruption scandal broke out in Ukraine and domestic political tension appeared, Russia played as subtly as possible.
They took advantage of the moment of weakness and slipped their own version of the “28-point plan” to the Western media. This was done by none other than Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Witkoff.
As a result, the information space unfolded according to the Russian scenario. Even American congressmen, European governments and Ukraine learned about the “plan” from the media - that is, from the Russian submission.
Russia's calculation was that Ukraine would immediately abandon the surrender plan. Which in turn would lead to Donald Trump's fury. However, we entered into negotiations and bought time.
And now there is even information that Trump did not know the details of this "plan" at all. Which once again confirms: this is an FSB product made by Russia's hands.---- Ukraine and the EU are again acting reactively, not proactively
This is Trump's third proposal in a year, served under different sauces, but with the same message.
The problem is that Ukraine and the European Union are again reacting to other people's ideas, instead of introducing their own agenda.
The threat of arms restrictions is a weak argument
There is an opinion that the main element of pressure on Ukraine is to stop arms supplies. But this, in my opinion, is at least manipulation.
Why?
Because we do not receive, but buy weapons. Moreover, Europe buys it through contracts with American manufacturers. Therefore, no US president will block multi-billion dollar contracts for the American military-industrial complex.
And if he dares to do so, he will be infected by the powerful American arms lobby. And this is a force capable of "biting" any president if he goes against their interests.
--- Trump himself is not interested in reducing support for Ukraine
Republicans have congressional elections in 2026, and each deputy will fight for his district.
Therefore, Republicans will rarely assess whether their president is strengthening their position in the district or not.
And restrictions on arms sales, which, according to sociological research (https://t.me/pekhno_news/21748), are supported by voters of both Republicans and Democrats, will weaken the positions of congressmen.
No one will shoot themselves in the foot during the campaign.
--- Our main risk is not weapons, but money
The most painful problem for 2026 is, unfortunately, our budget hole. After all, the US has withdrawn from budgetary support for Ukraine.
Currently, our "life jacket" for next year is Germany's financial participation in Norway. However, their money will not be enough. We need to confiscate Russian frozen assets.
And here two dangerous precedents created by the Russian "peace plan" appear:
--- "US Extortion" in the amount of $ 100 billion
The Russian plan states that:
• 200 billion out of 300 billion confiscated assets should go to "settlement",
• 100 billion of them - the US,
• 100 billion - to Ukraine.
This means that the US can receive a "bonus" from Russia simply for participating in the process. And this in turn may dilute the pan-European position on confiscation. This point was well described by Vadym Denysenko. (https://www.facebook.com/vadym.denysenko.1/posts/pfbid021ELb3sjBSH38htR21miLYL3UiGVXJoSdN4ADgJGg1unV5MoiAaidnAvNyz9Ux9aal?locale=uk_UA)
---- Argument for opponents of confiscation in the EU
Voices will now be heard in the European Commission, saying, "why confiscate assets for Ukraine, if the plan already states that Russia is ready for their voluntary partial transfer?"
This may disrupt the adoption of the European decision, which is due in December.
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