ChatGPT PRO-ს ანალიტიკა რუსეთის ბიუჯეტზე თუ ნავთობის ფასი 34$-ზე შენარჩუნდა.
What oil price is “baked into” Russia’s 2026 budget?
Russia’s budget framework effectively uses two oil-price notions:
Budget-rule “baseline / cutoff” price (the key one for how much oil & gas revenue can be spent):
For 2026: $59 per barrel (reduced from $60 in 2025).
Macro assumption for the average export price of Russian crude (used in the wider macro/budget planning):
The 2026 budget assumes ~$66/bbl average export price (a weighted average of Urals + ESPO in that source), with an assumed ~100 RUB/USD exchange rate.
Since you’re referencing Urals, the clean “budgeted Urals” anchor to compare against is $59/bbl.
Budget loss estimate for 2026 if Urals stays at $34/bbl
From Russia’s 2026–2028 budget plan, oil & gas revenues for 2026 are projected at ~8.9 trillion rubles.
The Moscow Times
Planned 2026 deficit is ~3.786 trillion rubles.
Step 1) Price drop vs budgeted Urals
Budgeted Urals: $59
Actual Urals: $34
Ratio: 34 / 59 = 0.576 → about 42.4% lower
Step 2) Approximate revenue shortfall (rule-of-thumb proportionality)
If oil & gas revenues move roughly proportionally with the Urals price (big simplification, but a useful first-order estimate):
Expected oil & gas revenue at $34: 8.9 × 0.576 ≈ 5.13 trillion RUB
Shortfall: 8.9 − 5.13 ≈ 3.77 trillion RUB
Step 3) What that does to the deficit (all else equal)
New deficit ≈ 3.786 + 3.77 = 7.56 trillion RUB
Convert to USD using the budget’s ~100 RUB/USD assumption
3.77 trillion RUB ≈ $37.7B
7.56 trillion RUB ≈ $75.6B
Bank of Finland Bulletin
Important caveats (why real outcomes can differ a lot)
Russia’s oil & gas take is driven by MET + export duties + “damper”/refining mechanisms, and it’s not perfectly linear with the Urals headline price.
The ruble exchange rate matters hugely; authorities may allow depreciation to partially offset the hit in ruble terms (OSW explicitly notes a weaker rouble as an offset tool).
Volumes/discounts/sanctions logistics can change the realized tax base.
But as a budget-planning stress test, “~3.8 trillion RUB oil & gas revenue hole in 2026” is a reasonable ballpark if Urals averages $34 all year.
Size of the shock (why it is huge)
If Urals stays ≈ $34 while the budget is built around ~$59:
~3.7–4.0 trillion RUB oil & gas revenue hole
That’s roughly:
≈40–45% of all oil & gas revenues
≈2% of Russia’s GDP
≈⅓ of total federal spending on defense + security combined
For a state already running a structural wartime deficit, that is not absorbable “noise.”
What actually breaks first (important nuance)
This does NOT mean:
Immediate default - NO
Overnight budget collapse - NO
“Russia runs out of money” headlines - NO
What does happen instead:
A) Deficit explodes
Planned 2026 deficit: ~3.8 trn RUB
With $34 oil: ~7.5–8 trn RUB
That’s 2× the planned gap, every year if prices persist
B) They burn buffers fast
National Wealth Fund (liquid part) ≈ $35–45B (already shrinking)
At $35–40B/year extra deficit, buffers last:
~12–18 months max
After that → printing or brutal cuts
How Russia will try to survive (and why it hurts)
Option 1: Weaken the ruble
Most likely response.
Ruble to 110–130 / USD
Oil taxes are in RUB → cushions revenue
BUT:
Inflation - UP
Imports & tech cost - UP
Real incomes - DOWN
Social tension ↑
This is basically a hidden tax on the population.
Option 2: Slash civilian spending
Already happening, but gets nastier:
Cuts target:
Regional transfers
Healthcare & education
Infrastructure
Civil servants
Defense spending is protected → everything else bleeds.
Option 3: Debt + money printing
OFZ issuance - UP
Banks forced to absorb bonds
Central Bank quietly monetizes
Outcome:
Inflation risk
Long-term stagnation
Financial repression
Why this matters strategically (not just accounting)
Low oil prices lock Russia into a slow-bleed path:
No fiscal room for escalation
Less ability to subsidize war production
Regions get poorer → political friction
Sanctions become far more effective
This is exactly why oil price caps matter.
Bottom line (plain language)
If Urals stays ~$34 in 2026:
Russia can continue operating
Russia cannot operate comfortably
Russia cannot fund both war + stability without pain
Every year at this level compounds damage
Think of it as:
Not a knockout punch — but a deep, sustained internal bleeding.
This post has been edited by ბიჭური on 23 Dec 2025, 08:57
მიმაგრებული სურათი (გადიდებისთვის დაუწკაპუნეთ სურათზე)
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რუსეთ-უკრაინის ომი, თემა N124, საპსანები გამოჩნდა
