Rally Sweden was extremely interesting even before it started. Mikko Hirvonen and Jari-Matti Latvala were expected to be on the podium, Marcus Grцnholm tickling the top positions and Kimi Rдikkцnen grabbing WC-points.
Mikko Hirvonen drove one of his best races and won Loeb with a crushing 42 seconds. This was the first time he won an opening race. I predict that Hirvonen will be the 2010 Champion. If he isn't, then I promise to walk back and forth to work during the whole year 2011. Carefully estimated it will be 14,4 km meaning 60 meters per day....
What about Mr. Grцnholm and Mr. Rдikkцnen. Let's start calculating...
Khalid Al-Qassimi who was creeping in front of Rдikkцnen in SS2 slowed Rдikkцnen with about half a minute. In SS6 Rдikkцnen drove into a snowbank and had to dig up his car for about 25 minutes. In SS10 Rдikkцnen drove into a snowbank 100 meters before the finish line but he got to continue after 30 seconds. In SS18 Rдikkцnen's front wheel was damaged and it took about a minute away from his time.
So all and all Rдikkцnen used about 27 minutes in his screw-ups.
Marcus Grцnholm's car stopped in SS6, he lost about 12 minutes. In SS13 he had a tyre puncture, now he lost about 7 minutes. In SS15 Grцnholm drove into a snowbank and lost about 1 minute.
Grцnholm's problems ate up about 20 minutes.
When you calculate the speeds per km to Mikko Hirvonen from those stages where Rдikkцnen didn't have these problems, Rдikkцnen's difference to Hirvonen was about 1,7 seconds per kilometer. On Friday the difference was 1,9 s/km, on Saturday 1,7 s/km and on Sunday only 1,5 s/km. At least you can say that there has been a numerical development each day although Hirvonen probably didn't drive with his foot on the pedal every meter on Sunday.
The lenght of all the stages put together was 345,24 kilometers. Let's take a completely theoretical situation where Rдikkцnen wouldn't have made one single mistake during the whole rally.
That would mean that he would have been 9 minutes and 45 seconds behind Hirvonen (345,24 x 1,7 seconds). Based on the result list it would have put him in 9th position meaning he would have got 2 points.
For the sake of comparison it should be mentioned that Ogier's difference to Hirvonen in Sweden was 4 minutes 15 seconds.
When VM asked in January Hirvonen and Latvala about how much Rдikkцnen will be behind the lead in each rally, Hirvonen guessed that he would be 4-5 minutes and Latvala 6 minutes. Either the boys were just being nice and polite or then Rдikkцnen's speed was some sort of a disappointment.
Let's make the same comparison with Grцnholm's speed. If he would have drove clean he would have been 0,48 s / km behind Hirvonen. On Friday the difference was 0,70 seconds, on Saturday 0,29 seconds and on Sunday 0,46. Without mistakes Grцnholm would have been 345,24 x 0,48 seconds meaning 2 minutes 47 seconds behind Hirvonen. With that time he would have been fighting with Dani Sordo for the 4th position.
Of course these time comparisons don't tell the whole truth because every driver have their own problems in every rally. Yet they give somekind of an indication, not to mention the entertaining speculative extra value they give.
Grцnholm was predicted to fight with Ford and Citroen for the 5th position. Rдikkцnen again was predicted to achieve the last WC-points if he succeeded. They were quite accurate - as long as we forget both Rдikkцnen's and Grцnholm's added minutes due to the mistakes they made. Staying on the road and the car's reliability are an extremely significant part of rallying.
The comparison shows that Grцnholm would still be very useful behind the steering wheel in WRC. I doubt this would end here for him.
Rдikkцnen's road to success is just as long as it was predicted to be. When Rдikkцnen improved his pace per kilometer to Hirvonen 0,2 seconds/km/day, the most hasty ones can already come to this conclusion: with this pace Rдikkцnen will catch up with Hirvonen's 1,7 seconds per kilometer in the next nine rallies.
With this freezing fur hat -logic Rдikkцnen will be ahead of Hirvonen in New Zealand in May.
Although the truth might be slightly different.
მოკლედ რო ვთქვათ... კიმის დღეების მიხედვით ჰირვოსთან ჩამორჩენა კილომეტრიდან იყო... 1.9/1.7/1.5 ანუ პროგრესი სახეზეა.. თუ იმას არ ჩავთვლით..რო ჰირვოს შეიძლება მესამე დღეს ბოლომდე არ ეგაზავა.. იმიტომ, რომ ლოებთან დიდი ატრივი ქონდა და გასარისკი არაფერი იყო...
საბოლოოდ კი თუ ზემოთ დასახელებული მიზეზს არ მივიღებთ მხედველობაში და მხოლოდ კიმის დროებს გადავხედავთ.. ასე ახალი ზელანდიის რალისთვის კიმი ჰირვოს სისწრაფის იქნება ...
დაგენძრა ჰირვონენ...
ეხლა აქ ###ებს ლოებს, ლატვალებს, სორდოს... აღარ ვახსენებ
This post has been edited by რასტრელი on 14 Feb 2010, 22:17 
FIA WORLD RALLY CHAMPIONSHIP, WRC
