2011 ROLAND GARROS WOMEN'S PREDICTIONSClijsters, Kvitova, Sharapova top 3
Don't count out Wozniacki, Azarenka, Schiavone & moreBy Matthew Cronin, TennisReporters.net
I can’t recall a time in the 71 Grand Slam previews that I have done that I’ve ever stared so blankly at the rankings page trying to come up with a list of serious favorites at a women’s major. Every single woman entering this year's Roland Garros has serious question marks attached to to her and because of that at least 20 players can win the tournament. I’m listing my top 10 here and then will discuss other contenders and dark horses.
KIM CLIJSTERS: No one, not even the four-times Slam champion Belgian knows how she’s going to show up in Paris, not when she hasn’t played since Miami after ripping her ankle up while dancing at a wedding. Because she’s won the last two Slams and has reached the Roland Garros final twice, she has to be called the tournament favorite based on experience, weaponry and a general lack of nerves. But while she's been a very good clay court player, she has never been a great one and if she's playing in pain and doesn’t trust her shots, she could go down on a cold, windy day. But if she’s in good form entering the second week, be very aware of her presence because she badly wants to grab the French title before she retires and will have the determination to do so.
PETRA KVITOVA: This might be going out on a bit of limb because the left-handed Czech is still relatively inexperienced and has had up and downs results, but she is no stranger to clay, has so much power that she can rip winners despite the slowness of the surface and has put up very impressive results in two out of the last three Slams (reaching the Wimbledon semis and Aussie quarters). Movement will always be her weakness, but she showed in Madrid that she can compensate that with a vicious brand of first strike tennis. She has a great shot to be the first member of her generation to win a Slam.
MARIA SHARAPOVA: In some ways I cannot believe I’m making the formerly clay-challenged Sharapova top-3 contender to win Roland Garros, but she has the fight, the resume to show she knows how to win Slams and after winning Rome, at least a partial formula as how to win on dirt.
A lot of her wins in Rome had to do with having a great week serving, but it also had to do with being comfortable on her forehand side, not just going with standard down the lines and crosscourts, but also yanking her foes off court with shorter angles. The key for a deep Sharapova run in Paris is obvious – she must avoid playing long, strenuous matches in the first three rounds, and trust that her legs are now strong enough to where she doesn’t have to dictate every point. If she can do so, she has a fine shot at a career Grand Slam.
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Some of the world feels that the No. 1 has no shot to win this Slam after Julia Goerges hammered her twice on clay and Sharapova hit her off the court in Rome. I disagree to a point, because I believe that Wozniacki does have the formula to win on dirt if she commits to it. Clearly, she has trouble producing pace off her forehand wing if she is way back of the baseline, but if she moves inside the court and short hops her groundies she can dictate more and actually control points. She can run with anyone, but has to trust her offense. There will be immense pressure on her to win this major, more so than in Australia because the Danish press will be out in droves. The 20-year-old says she can handle it, but she’s in a prove it stage now.
VICTORIA AZARENKA: The Belarusian is simply confounding as she just cannot stay healthy or avoid fluke injuries. She clearly has the game to win a Slam now, but she has yet to reach the final four of major and with all the injuries she’s had over the past two years, does she really trust she can last seven matches? Maybe not, but if she gets cranking in the first week and can avoid super steady counter punchers like Wozniacki on a bad day, she’s in with a shot.
FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE: The Italian has not a had a great year but I was somewhat encouraged by the RG defending champion’s play in Rome, even though she looked flat in her loss to Sam Stosur. She is sure to be inspired in Paris and has a dirtballer's to game to match up with anyone. If she can feel the Parisian magic rather than the pressure when she arrives, she’ll be a title threat. Otherwise she could suffer an early exit.
SAMANTHA STOSUR: Stosur did a terrific job of putting her threatening clay court game back together in Rome and even though Sharapova smoked her in the final, at least she found some rhythm with her serve and forehand and even managed to produce a few decent backhands down the line. I’ve never been sure if this gentle soul has a champion’s pedigree, but if she manages to get back in the final and face a similar level of player, I would not be stunned if she raised the big trophy for Australia – and for herself.
JULIA GEORGES: I absolutely love how much the German has improved this year. She’s not only dictating with her forehand but has added variety to it; her backhand is consistent and is she can take it hard down the line; her serve is respectable and her return can be fearsome. But I’m not sure whether she’ll be able to handle the pressure of being a real Slam contender. If she can, the sky is the limit in Paris.
VERA ZVONAREVA: I’m not sure why I’, picking Zvonareva as a top-10 favorite given her overall play this year, but she has been very good at going deep ay the Slams and maybe she’s saving up her best effort for Paris. No doubt she has weapons play on clay, but changing coaches last month might play against her.
DOMINICA CIBULKOVA: I really like how much progress the Slovakian has made since last summer. On this surface I like her speed, her forehand and how she’s willing to gut out points. No top seed wants to see the former French semifinalist early, but Cibulkova has to show she’s a lot more than just a streaky player.
THE OTHERSIts nice to se
Li Na playing well again, but unless it heats up in Paris, I see her getting knocked out early.
Jelena Jankovic and
Sveta Kuznetsova are excellent clay court players, but neither has shown all that much this season. I keep waiting for
Aga Radwanska to make another push and for
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to mature.
Marion Bartoli will likely go further than any other French player again, but not beyond the quarters.
Andrea Petkovic appears to have hit a bit of a wall, as has
Flavia Pennetta and
Alisa Kleybanova. Exactly when is the talented
Yanina Wickmayer going to develop a Plan B? When she does, she’s top 10 for sure. Of the Americans,
Bethanie Mattek-Sands and
Christina McHale have the best chances to make charges, but much of their success will depend on their draws. I firmly believe that
Ana Ivanovic still has top 10, even top 5 stuff, but she’s been hurt a lot this year and is now contending with left wrist injury. Unless she gets healthy in the next few days, it’s hard to see her having a major impact in Paris.
© TennisReporters.net 2011
http://tennisreporters.net/rgWpre11.html
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