ჩვენ რომ ვიცით იმან ცალკე თემა გახსნა და იქიდან გვებრძვის. მაინც ვერ ვასწავლე მაგ ბიჭს ზრდილობა.
რაც შეეხება ფუელ სელებს, აქ არის მათი და ელემენტების შედარებითი დახასიათება
Can Toyota's First Hydrogen Car Challenge Tesla?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2718205-ca...challenge-tesla» სპოილერის ნახვისთვის დააწკაპუნეთ აქ «
Summary
Toyota introduces the first purpose-built hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) car, the Mirai, which means “future” in Japanese.
The Mirai will be available for sale (lease) in Japan and California starting in 2015.
Sales volumes will be tiny for at least the next 3-5 years at around 1,000 per year in the U.S.
Gasoline prices, relative to the cost of hydrogen, will determine the Mirai's long-term success.
Toyota (NYSE:TM) invited journalists from around the world to drive its first commercially available hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) car, the Mirai. I drove the car and spoke to the engineers and product planners behind it for a couple of days.
It is important to understand that Toyota is thinking long term with respect to planning for HFC success. The next five years represent initial training wheels, which will be followed by an improved model in 2020. Toyota doesn't expect high-volume production and sales, on par with what it has achieved with the Prius over the last eight years, until it introduces a third-generation HFC in 2025. Thus far, Toyota has sold five million Prius cars and many more hybrids in total.
And those are only the short-term plans. Toyota's intermediate-term plans stretch from 2025 to 2050. Long-term plans for this platform cover 2050 to 2100. When Toyota talks about the possibility of missing the quarter, they are talking about the quarter-century! I have never met a company with as careful long-term planning as this one.
Before I get into Toyota's specific car and launch plans, let's consider the general market prospects for HFC cars, as almost all automakers will offer them by 2020.
Specifically, there are two key questions:
What are HFC car prospects compared to regular gasoline/diesel cars?
What are HFC car prospects compared to battery-electric cars, such as those made by Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and all other automakers?
Compared to regular gasoline/diesel cars:
HFC cars have, or could easily have, the same kind of range as gasoline and diesel cars - 300 miles and up. They refuel similarly. There are really only four variables that set them apart:
An HFC car actually propels the wheels using the same kind of electric motor that you find in an electric car, so it is smooth and silent. That is an advantage.
There is next to zero hydrogen fueling infrastructure today, so it has to be built. Obviously this takes time and costs money, but how much?
The HFC car costs much more to build, and while the gap with gasoline cars will narrow with volume manufacturing, it will likely remain somewhat high for at least another decade.
Hydrogen as a fuel costs over twice as much as gasoline on a per-mile driven basis.
Of these four differences, three are negatives, and the one most often cited is the lack of infrastructure. However, if the cost of the fuel were competitive with gasoline, and the cost of the car was only a modest premium (say, 5%-15% tops), the hydrogen infrastructure would be built very quickly.
For example, you don't need hydrogen fueling stations on all four corners of an intersection. We have more gasoline stations than we need, so this does not have to be replicated on a one-for-one basis. Toyota suggested 15% will be enough.
The hard issue with HFC cars is simply this: The fuel is too expensive. Toyota tells us that it will cost $50 to travel 300 miles. Well, in Toyota's own Prius, which yields 50 MPG, that cost would be $18 at $3 per gallon (300 miles divided by 50 MPG = 6 gallons).
For the life of me, I don't see how the proposition that the consumer pay well over twice per mile in fuel cost, compared to gasoline in the U.S. today, can have any prospects for success. Buy this car, which is sort of like a Prius, but it will cost you 2.5x as much per mile for this new kind of fuel. It just won't fly. Not at anywhere near today's gasoline prices.
Gasoline would have to be more than $8 per gallon for HFC cars to make sense economically, on a fuel-cost basis.
We are told hydrogen will decline to approximately a $5 per gallon-equivalent in approximately ten years. In addition, gasoline is already $8 or thereabouts in many countries outside the U.S., such as Western Europe and Japan.
From this perspective, HFC cars are a bit of an insurance policy against dramatically higher gasoline prices, at least in the short run (less than a decade). For the longer term (more than a decade), hydrogen may come down in price to match today's gasoline prices.
Forget about the infrastructure issues. The infrastructure will be built out quickly, assuming there is demand for these cars. And there will be demand for these cars once hydrogen costs less than gasoline. Which is not today.
Compared to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) such as Tesla:
As with regular gasoline/diesel cars, HFC cars are not directly comparable with BEVs because they have very different strengths and weaknesses. For some people, a BEV may be a better choice, but for others, not at all.
For example, if you have a predictable commute that's somewhat on the long side and you can charge your car at work - and you don't anticipate any spontaneous trips to the wilderness - a BEV may be the right choice for you today, whether a Tesla or a Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) LEAF.
However, if you live where it is very cold, you have unpredictable driving patterns, you can't charge at home or at work or you just don't want to think or plan for your car's daily charging needs, a BEV may not be for you today.
With all that said, from the user's perspective an HFC car has one thing in common with a BEV, and that is the smooth and silent electric drive. In Toyota's case, the Mirai shares some of its electric components such as the battery with the Camry hybrid. It is a premium experience.
Granted, this first instance of the Toyota Mirai HFC car is not a rocket ship. It does 0-60 MPH in nine seconds, which was considered fast 20-40 years ago, but is now considered only average. It is a car for the average driver, not the sports car fanatic.
The Toyota Mirai differs from Tesla's Model S, as a car with almost 300 miles of range, with respect to refueling time. To add, say, 200 miles of freeway driving range (77 MPH cruise control), a Tesla driver would have to be plugged in approximately one hour. In contrast, the Toyota Mirai driver would add fuel in approximately five minutes.
Some people say it doesn't matter much whether it takes five minutes or one hour to add 200 miles of freeway driving range. On a trip, they like the ability to have to something to eat and stretch their legs.
I will let you be the judge as to whether refueling time matters. My opinion is that it does. While it is the case that I sometimes don't mind sticking around for almost an hour to add 200 miles of freeway cruising range, I typically want the option to be on the move in less than ten minutes and then decide to eat somewhere else along the way.
So what will it be? Will BEVs be more or less successful than HFC cars?
I think there is no doubt that for at least the next five years, probably closer to ten, BEVs such as the ones sold by almost all automakers today, including Tesla, will be more successful than HFC cars such as the Toyota Mirai.
The way to understand why BEVs such as Tesla will vastly outsell the Toyota Mirai is to examine what the "core constituencies" are for each technology. BEVs, such as Tesla, have several:
Some people prefer to fuel at home or at work.
Some people simply have a religious aversion against fueling at stations.
BEVs will offer better sports car performance, at least in the near term.
In the short term, the hydrogen infrastructure is not built out, although it will be by 2023 in many relevant geographies.
BEVs are simply a whole new paradigm, compared to HFC. There are core constituencies who will buy BEVs almost no matter what. I don't see those for HFC.
So there are two ways of looking at this BEV vs. HFC battle:
In the near term, there is a market for BEVs. Nissan is by far the leader thus far, with over 200,000 cars sold in four years. Tesla, Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY), BMW and all other automakers are gearing up for much larger volumes starting in 2017. Yet, this remains a tiny share of the overall auto market, with expected BEV market share of 1% by 2020.
In the long term, HFC is a bet on the willingness of broad masses of the population to abandon gasoline and diesel. If gasoline goes over $8 per gallon in the short term, or over $5 per gallon by 2025, HFC becomes the fuel of choice. Then, adoption won't be 1% as with BEVs. It could be closer to 99%.
So what were my driving impressions of the Toyota Mirai, which you will be able to lease in California starting in the fall of 2015 for $499 per month? (Toyota confirmed that almost nobody will buy the car, just lease). In the interest of brevity, I can summarize the experience in the following bullet points:
It's sort of a funny-looking Camry with too small wheels.
The back seat fits only two people and has inadequate headroom.
The luggage space is on the small side and the rear seats don't fold.
The controls/dash are much like the Prius. I didn't like them.
In terms of the driving experience, it basically drives like a dream with superior smoothness and silence. Basically, just like the best electric cars.
I asked Toyota if they will also be making BEVs, just like Tesla and all the other automakers. They said they are investing more in battery R&D than any other automaker and they expect to eventually offer BEVs as well, as soon as they deem the batteries good enough for the mass market in terms of overall reliability, performance and cost. This is likely more than three years from now. But there is little doubt Toyota will be a tough competitor in the pure battery-electric car space as well.
The bottom line is this: HFC cars, such as the Toyota Mirai, are largely irrelevant to BEVs such as Tesla for the next five years or more, but could be the main competition a decade from now depending on gasoline prices. In the near term, the bulk of the competition for Tesla will be 1) Regular gasoline/diesel cars, 2) Plug-in gasoline-electric hybrids and 3) BEVs made by all the other automakers.
Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends product launches and related trips with almost all automakers mentioned in this article, and some of those trips are paid for in whole or in part by said automakers. Toyota paid for lodging and meals at a Mirai product launch event. The author also regularly test-drives cars provided by almost all automakers, to members of the press.
რაც მანდ არ წერია და ჩემი აზრით ძალიან მნიშვნელოვანია, არის უსაფრთხოება. ფუელ სელიან მანქანაში ფაქტიურად დენთის კასრზე ზიხარ. რომ დაირღვეს ჰერმეტულობა და რაიმე მიზეზით წყალბადი ჰაერს შეერიოს, კარგად მეყოლე. ელემენტებს მაქსიმუმ ცეცხლი წაეკიდოს, რაც უკვე მოხდა 1-2 ჯერ ტესლაში და საკმაოდ მშვიდობიანად დამთავრდა.
მეორე მნიშვნელოვანი ფაქტორი არის ის, რომ ფუელ სელში წყალბადისთვის დამატებითი ინფრასტრუქტურა გჭირდება. ტესლაში ელემენტები გაქვს მანქანაში და მორჩა, სხვა არაფერი გჭირდება, სადაც კი დენიანი შტეფსელია, ყველგან შეძლებ დამუხტვას. დენი კი ყველგანაა. ფუელ სელში უფრო რთულადაა საქმე.
მესამე, როგორც მასკმა თქვა, ფუელ სელები სამჯერ უფრო ნაკლებეფექტურია ვიდრე ელემენტები.
დიდი კომპანიები, მათ შორის ტოიოტაც, ყველანაირ ტექნოლოგიას ამუშავებს, რომ ბოლოს რომელიც არ უნდა აღმოჩნდეს გამარჯვებული, პირდაღებული არ დარჩნენ. თუ რომელიმე კომპანიის ხელმძღვანელობა ამას არ აკეთებს, ის ცუდად ემსახურება თავის აქციონერებს.
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