FRAUD IN GEORGIA
Although the overall statistical impression of the elections in Georgia was positive (https://x.com/romanik_/status/1850582230940434869) , the Devil, as usual, was in the details.
The respected Levan Kvirkvelia pointed out a discrepancy between urban and rural voting patterns.
His observation was confirmed, indicating manipulations favouring the ruling party in specific districts, i.e. all except districts DEC 1-10 (Tbilisi), 20 (Rustavi), 59 (Kutaisi), 64, 67, 68, 69, 70 (Poti), and 79 (Batumi).
There is a method or hypothesis known as the Sobyanin-Sukhovolski's (S-S). For instance, you can find it mentioned here:
https://electoralpolitics.org/en/articles/m...-sukhovolskogo/According to this method, if we plot voting results on the following axes:
X-axis = turnout (number of voters / registered voter list)
Y-axis = candidate/party result (number of votes for the party / registered voter list)
we observe these patterns:
In fair voting, the slope of the point cluster aligns with the candidate’s percentage (if a candidate has 30% support in the population, then out of every 100 voters, 30 support the candidate, or y = 0.3 * x).
In cases of ballot stuffing, the slope of the cluster is 45° (out of every 100 stuffed ballots, all 100 are for the beneficiary of the fraud or y = x). For the victim, the slope is 0° (out of every 100 stuffed ballots, 0 is stuffed for the victim).
In the case of 'misrecording', when votes are not only stuffed in favour of the beneficiary of the fraud but are also added by taking them away from other parties, the slope becomes steeper, or y > x. For the victim, the slope is negative (they don't get any votes with the growth of the turnout, they lose them).
This pattern can be observed in the data from Georgia when dividing it into two groups:
Group 1: DEC 1-10 (Tbilisi), 20 (Rustavi), 59 (Kutaisi), 64, 67, 68, 69, 70 (Poti), 79 (Batumi).
Group 2: all other districts.
It is clear that the S-S hypothesis holds in Group 1 but not in Group 2. This discrepancy suggests a basis for suspecting fraud in Group 2, while no such grounds were observed in Group 1.
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