ევრობანკის პროგნოზი

ბოდიშს გიხდით რუსულისთვის

Прогноз EБРР относительно экономического роста в регионе. Грузия в отчете не фигурирует, однако кое-какие показатели помогают установить картину.

Slow Eastern Europe Growth Forecast
By PAUL HANNON
May 22, 2006


LONDON -- Economic growth in the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will slow during the next five years as inflows of foreign investment level off, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said.

In its twice-yearly Transition Report, the development bank said the economies of the 27 countries in which it invests will grow on average 5.3% this year, marking a slowdown from the 5.6% growth rate recorded in 2005 and the 6.7% rate posted in 2004.

But for the five years from 2007, the EBRD said, annual growth will average 4.5% as inflows of foreign investment, which in recent years have been high by historic standards, tail off. Foreign direct investment totaled $55.6 billion in 2005, more than double the $25.6 billion recorded in 2000. The EBRD expects foreign direct investment to fall to $44.7 billion in 2006.

"In the region as a whole, we think foreign direct investment will level off and the signs we are seeing right now of a cooling of interest in emerging markets will contribute to that," said Erik Berglof, the EBRD's chief economist.

The EBRD added: "Any loss of confidence in emerging markets would have an impact in the region and could cause a significant drop in growth" and foreign direct investment.

Although emerging markets around the globe have benefited in recent years from strong inflows of foreign investment, rising interest rates in the U.S., the euro zone and the prospect of higher rates in Japan have in recent weeks led to an outflow of funds from some.

However, in a separate report, also published yesterday, the Institute for International Finance -- a group based in Washington that counts many of the world's largest banks among its membership -- forecast that foreign investment in the region's equity markets would rise during the next two years, to $14.7 billion this year and $9 billion in 2007 from $4 billion in 2005.

The Institute for International Finance expects investment in the region's equity markets to rise despite a loss of momentum in the process of economic overhaul.

"Reform momentum has diminished across the region as a result of recent or forthcoming elections and the rising appeal of populist parties opposed to market-oriented reforms and foreign investment," the institute said.

Inflows of foreign direct investment have been important drivers of growth in the eight central European countries that joined the European Union in 2004. Foreign direct investment rose to $22.7 billion in 2004 from $8.2 billion in 2003, and rose again to $28 billion last year.

Mr. Berglof said one of the challenges faced by the eight new members is to generate growth in those sectors of the economy that aren't controlled by foreign investors.

The Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland have said they want to join the euro zone by the decade's end or shortly thereafter. But some are running budget deficits exceeding the 3% of gross-domestic-product limit set as one of the euro zone's entry criteria.

In the short term, the EBRD expects their budget deficits to widen, taking them further away from adopting the euro. In 2006, it expects Hungary's budget deficit to widen to 6.2% of GDP from 6.1%, while it expects the Czech Republic's budget deficit to widen to 3.9% of GDP from 3.2%, Poland's to widen to 3.2% from 2.9%, and Slovakia's to widen to 3.5% from 3%.

"With voters turning away from advocates of genuine fiscal reform, governments have shied away from many of the measures needed to scale back social spending and solidify fiscal adjustment," the institute said. "Slovakia alone has enacted reforms bold enough to bring within reach a medium-term deficit path complying with the Maastricht fiscal criteria."

Despite the continued high price of oil and gas, the EBRD expects the Russian economy to slow this year to growth of 5.5%, compared with 6.4% in 2005 and 7.1% in 2004. "There has been a marked slowdown in the natural-resources sector due to capacity constraints and ineffective government policies," the EBRD said.

The development bank expects other natural-resource rich parts of the former Soviet Union to post some of the world's highest economic growth rates. Azerbaijan topped world growth in 2005 with a GDP expansion of 26.4%, and the EBRD expects 2006 to be slightly weaker, with GDP growing 25%.

But the EBRD also forecasts Kazakhstan's economy will expand 8.5%, marking a slowdown from 9.4% in 2005, and Turkmenistan's economy will grow 10.6%, a pickup from 9.6% in 2005.

As a whole, the EBRD expects growth in the former Soviet Union excluding the Baltic States to slow significantly to 5.7% in 2006 from 6.6% in 2005 and 8.0% in 2004.

By contrast, the EBRD expects growth in southeastern Europe to pick up this year to an average rate of 4.8% from 4.5% in 2005.

It said the region is benefiting from improved trade and investment links with the EU, led by Romania, where growth is forecast to pick up to 5% from 4% last year.

Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@dowjones.com

Комментарий:

Важнейший фактор стимулируюший рост это прямые западные инвестиции. Их в свою очередь можно привлечь решительными, (пусть и не всегда популярными) реформами. В этом отношении в Грузии в последние годы положение было лучше остальных: устойчивое и популярное правительство имело хороший запас прочности для реформ. Однако хорошее не может длиться вечно. Во-первых растет прослойка недовольных. Это естественный процесс в начале реформ. Недовольные уже есть, а довольные еше не появились. Именно на это и рассчитывает Россия, объявивши торговую войну против Грузинской и одновременно резко взвинтив цены на энергию. Подобные меры неизбежно задевают широкие слои и расширяют социальную базу для недовольства. Все это сопровождается массовым вливанием денег в любое лицо или задницу, лишь бы это лицо или задница выражали готовность бороться с правительством собственной страны.

Таким образом положение у грузинских властей довольно тяжелое. С одной стороны для привлечения инвестиций и сохранения темпов роста нужно продолжать реформы и сохранять жесткую фискальную политику. А с другой стороны рост социального недовольства подталкивает власти больше тратить если не вовсе скатиться к популизму. Какой выход будет найден, пока сложно утверждать. Многое зависит от готовности Запада поддерживать грузинские реформы не только на словах но и на деле.

Еше один негативный фактор рост процентов по банковским кредитам, наблюдаемый на Западе. Соответственно есть риск роста цен на кредиты и в развиваюшихся странах, включая Грузию.

Остальные факторы несомненно позитивные. Во-первых по мере замедления темпов роста в Восточной Европе, те у кого деньги есть конечно же ишут новые проекты для инвестиций. В этом смысле очень неплохие щансы как у наших соседей в лице Румынии (реформирование экономики и укрепление экономических связей с ЕС) так и у Азербайджана и Казахстана (нефть). Соответственно улучшаются шансы и Грузии тоже. Именно нефть стран Каспия, а не продажи вина в Россию основной движитель роста грузинской экономики. Сюда же можно отнести улучшение экономических связей с Румынией и Болгарией. Не всегда эти изменения ошутимы в цифрах, но качественная трансформация отношений, как задел для роста в будушем несомненно имеет место.

Ну и наконец основной торговый партнер Грузии в лице Турции. Эта страна, хоть и не освешается в отчете, но экономическое положение в ней сегодня скорее хорошее. Во всяком случае из недавнего кризиса Турция похоже уже выщла и теперь довольно динамично растет.

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