თქვენი აზრით 2001 წლის 11 სექტემბრის შემდეგ დასუსტდა თუ გაძლიერდა ალ-ქაიდა? და რა შეცვალა აშშ-ს ანტიტერორისტულმა კამპანიამ?
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ნომერ პირველი ტერორისტი მომხრეებს მოუწოდებს ალაჰისთვის წამებულნი გახდნენ. ტელეკომპანია „სი-ენ-ენი“ ბენ ლადენის 50 წამიან ვიდეო მიმართვას ავრცელებს.
გავრცელებული ვიდეო მიმართვაში ბინ ლადენი აცხადებს, რომ თითოეული მუსლიმანი მუჰამედის კვალს უნდა გაჰყვეს, რომელიც მტერზე თავდასხმასა და ალაჰისთვის წამებით სიკვდილზე ოცნებობდა.
ამერიკული დაზვერვის ინფორმაციით, მიუხედავად ანტიტერორისტული კამპანიისა „ალ-ქაიდა“ იმაზე ძლიერია, ვიდრე 2001 წელს 11 სექტემბრის ტერაქტებისას იყო.
ცოტა ხნის წინ შეერთებული შტატების სენატმა უსამა ბინ ლადენის ლიკვიდაციისთვის ჯილდო გააორმაგა და 50 მილიონი დოლარი დააწესა
A 17 October statement posted on an Islamist website claims to be from the Tawhid and Jihad group led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
It begins with a personal pledge of allegiance from Zarqawi and his fighters to Osama Bin Laden. But what is the evidence for his relationship with al-Qaeda - and for his status as the mastermind of the Iraq insurgency?
The statement has not been authenticated and verifying the author of web postings is almost impossible.
But even the suggestion of some kind of alliance marks another twist in the much disputed tale of the relationship between Zarqawi and Bin Laden.
Competitors?
Few have doubted that there have been contacts, but the generally accepted view so far has been that Zarqawi had constructed his own parallel network which may have in some ways been in competition with that of Bin Laden's al-Qaeda.
At one trial in Germany, a witness said that Zarqawi had ordered his followers not to co-operate with al-Qaeda.
Some had even begun to suggest that with Osama Bin Laden now strangely absent from the scene for a prolonged period, Zarqawi could become the new figurehead of the global jihadist movement.
This makes any pledge of loyalty an interesting development. But tracing the history of contacts between Zarqawi and al-Qaeda involves navigating some murky waters.
The Bush administration has been claiming a link between Zarqawi and Bin Laden for a long time but not always with much success.
Zarqawi first came to prominence just before the start of the Iraq war when, in Colin Powell's presentation before the UN Security Council, Zarqawi's presence in Iraq was portrayed as proof of a link between Saddam Hussein's regime and al-Qaeda.
Links unproven
But evidence of strong links both ways - to Saddam on the one side and to al-Qaeda on the other - proved hard to substantiate.
Since the start of the Iraq insurgency, Zarqawi has steadily risen to prominence as the symbol of the Iraq insurgency in the same way Osama Bin Laden has been the symbol of the global Islamist insurgency.
The message posted on 17 October claims that talks have been going on for eight months between al-Qaeda and Zarqawi and encountered many interruptions as Tawhid and Jihad explained its strategy before the final offer of loyalty.
In January of this year, American officials say they found documents from Zarqawi and addressed to al-Qaeda asking for its help in fomenting a sectarian war in Iraq between Shia and Sunni.
The implication was that Zarqawi's group was independent but looking for support. US officials said they believed al-Qaeda had rebuffed these advances.
Even if this new statement was authenticated, what would its significance be? Much of that relates to the question of how far the violence in Iraq is linked to the wider jihadist agenda or whether its roots are more domestic.
Mastermind
Answering this question draws on the question of whether Zarqawi really is the all-powerful mastermind sometimes portrayed.
Many of the most high-profile attacks, whether suicide bombings or kidnappings, have been claimed and attributed to Zarqawi's group.
ZARQAWI IN CONTEXT
20-500: Estimate of size Zarqawi's Tawhid and Jihad group
20,000-40,000: Estimate of size of Iraqi resistance
But some question whether he could really be organising much of the rest of the insurgency.
It is helpful though for the US to personalise the insurgency and emphasise the role of foreign fighters because it makes the link to al-Qaeda, obscuring the sense of a nationalist uprising against American "occupation".
It is not just a question of others perhaps exaggerating his role. Zarqawi himself has proved adept at playing the media.
He has used video messages and taken hostages to maximise the impact of his actions - spreading fear but also elevating his own position as the visible leader of opposition to the US and interim government.
With estimates of the numerical strength of Tawhid and Jihad running from 20 to 500, its unlikely to be the motor behind the lower-profile attacks that make up the bulk of the insurgency.
Estimates of the strength of the entire insurgency points to between 20,000-40,000 people being involved, putting Zarqawi's group in context.
Recent evidence also points to the possibility that the Baathist former regime loyalists may still be playing a more active role than has recently been assumed even if that is in co-operation with Zarqawi
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3754618.stmAl-Qaeda's origins and links
Al-Qaeda's leaders: (From left) Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama Bin Laden and Mohammed Atef
Al-Qaeda, meaning "the base", was created in 1989 as Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan and Osama Bin Laden and his colleagues began looking for new jihads.
The organisation grew out of the network of Arab volunteers who had gone to Afghanistan in the 1980s to fight under the banner of Islam against Soviet Communism.
During the anti-Soviet jihad Bin Laden and his fighters received American and Saudi funding. Some analysts believe Bin Laden himself had security training from the CIA.
The "Arab Afghans", as they became known, were battle-hardened and highly motivated.
In the early 1990s Al-Qaeda operated in Sudan. After 1996 its headquarters and about a dozen training camps moved to Afghanistan, where Bin Laden forged a close relationship with the Taleban.
The US campaign in Afghanistan starting in late 2001 dispersed the organisation and drove it underground as its personnel were attacked and its bases and training camps destroyed.
Cells across the world
The organisation is thought to operate in 40 to 50 countries, not only in the Middle East and Asia but in North America and Europe.
In western Europe there have been known or suspected cells in London, Hamburg, Milan and Madrid. These have been important centres for recruitment, fundraising and planning operations.
Attacks attributed to al-Qaeda or associates
1993: World Trade Center bombing
1996: Killing of 19 US soldiers in Saudi Arabia
1998: East African bombings
2000: Attack on USS Cole in Yemen
2001: Suicide attacks on New York and Washington
2002: Attack on Israeli tourists in Mombasa
2003: Four simultaneous bomb attacks in Riyadh
For training, the group favours lawless areas where it can operate freely and in secret.
These are believed to have included Somalia, Yemen and Chechnya, as well as mountainous areas of Afghanistan.
There have been reports of a secret training camp on one of the islands of Indonesia.
Unlike the tightly-knit groups of the past, such as the Red Brigades in Italy or the Abu Nidal group in the Middle East, al-Qaeda is loosely knit. It operates across continents as a chain of interlocking networks.
Individual groups or cells appear to have a high degree of autonomy, raising their own money, often through petty crime, and making contact with other groups only when necessary.
Defining al-Qaeda?
This loose connection between groups has raised a question of definition. When we talk about al-Qaeda do we refer to an actual organisation or are we now talking about something closer to an idea?
Al-Qaeda's main figures
At large: Osama Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahri
Captured by US: Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Abu Zubaydah
On trial: Zacarias Moussaoui, Mounir al-Motassadek
Jailed: Richard Reid
Believed dead: Mohammed Atef
Who's who in al-Qaeda
Attacks like the May 2003 bombings in Riyadh and the attack on Israeli tourists in Mombasa in 2002 are widely attributed to al-Qaeda. But were these attacks in any way planned or financed or organised by Bin Laden or the organisation he is still believed to lead?
Some analysts have suggested that the word al-Qaeda is now used to refer to a variety of groups connected by little more than shared aims, ideals and methods.
We do however know that several radical groups are or have been formally affiliated with al-Qaeda. The most important is the radical wing of the Egyptian group Islamic Jihad whose members took refuge in Afghanistan and merged with al-Qaeda.
Its leader is Ayman al-Zawahri, a ruthless Egyptian believed to be the brains behind al-Qaeda and the mastermind of many of its most infamous operations.
These include the attacks on two US embassies in Africa in 1998 and the 11 September attacks against New York and Washington.
There are also believed to be links with:
Militant Kashmiri groups
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, or IMU
The Abu Sayyaf group in the Philippines;
The GIA, or Armed Islamic Group, in Algeria and its radical offshoot known as the Salafist group, or GSPC
Because of heat like that of the sun on the sea, The fish around Nefrepont will be half-cooked. When in Rhodes and Genoa there is lack of food. 2012
თქვენი აზრით 2001 წლის 11 სექტემბრის შემდეგ ......, ალ-ქაიდა
