სრული სტატია ორიგინალში.
მოკლედ:
* ამერიკა და EU უნდა შეთახმდეს ერთმანეთი უპირველესყოვლისა
* უნდა იყოს გამოყენებული სანქციები რუსეთის წინააღმდეგ, როგორც ნატოში ისე EUში
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* საქართველომ უნდა გამოიყვანოს აფხაზეთი იზოლაციიდან, ისე რომ რაღაც ურთიერთობები აღსდგეს და აფხაზეთი რუსეთს ჩამოსცილდეს თანდათან
* სახელმწიფოს (ქართული) ფეხზე დადგა თუმცა ახლა მას ჭირდება დემოკრატიაზე ზრუნვა რათა არ განმეორდეს ნოემბერი და ა.შ.
* ოლიმპიდის ფაქტორი და რუსეთზე დაწოლის საშუალებები
დასკვნა: ეს კაცი მგონი რუსეთს არ იცნობს, როცა ამბობს რომ რუსეთი კონფრონტაციას დათმობას არჩევს?! რუსეთი ხომ სიგიჟეების კეთებით ცნობილი ქვეყანაა
ეს ასე მოკლედ
Pulling back from the brink in Abkhazia
By David Phillips
Published: July 29 2008 12:07 | Last updated: July 29 2008 12:07
War between Russia and Georgia is not inevitable if the west stands together in support of Georgia and Georgia’s leaders take steps to defuse the current crisis and lay the ground for future negotiations. The US should lead international efforts to promote a peaceful outcome. Not only would a spiral of deadly violence disrupt energy supplies across Europe and Asia. Through Abkhazia, the Moscow-backed breakaway region of Georgia, Russia is posing a strategic challenge that the US dare not ignore.
In response to Russia’s provocations, Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili can dispel claims that he is a “hot-head” by acting like a true statesman. Mr Saakashvili can ease tensions by promising that Georgia will not initiate force against Abkhazia. He should invite Abkhaz leaders to issue a concurrent pledge not to use force and reopen civilian crossings to Abkhazia. At the same time, he should reinforce his offer of “unlimited autonomy” for Abkhazia by detailing specific power-sharing arrangements aimed at protecting and promoting Abkhaz interests, including international security guarantees.
Russia must also pull back from the brink. To that end, the US and key European allies must recognise that the situation is just too dangerous to ignore. They can make clear their disapproval of Russia’s recent actions by urging Russia to reverse its decision establishing legal ties to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and withdraw the recent surge of “peacekeepers” that were deployed with offensive weapons. Western countries should publicly affirm that recognition of Abkhazia, de-facto annexation or acts of war constitute a red line that Russia must not cross.
They must also make clear the penalties if Russia crosses this red line. For example, the European Union could suspend its negotiations with Russia on a partnership and co-operation agreement, revoke its visa facilitation regime for Russians and impose sanctions on Russian businesses investing in Abkhazia.
Nato should also make clear its support for Georgia by including Georgia’s membership action plan prominently on the agenda of its next ministers’ meeting. The alliance could also extend its combat air patrol to Georgia (as it did for Lithuania in 2002).
Finally, Russia cannot be a mediator if it is a party to the conflict. If Russia persists, the US should withdraw from the “friends group” – where Russia acts as facilitator – and steward the creation of a contact group made up of countries with goodwill towards Georgia.
These measures can help mitigate the escalation of conflict. Then Georgian officials and Abkhaz representatives should undertake a set of measures designed to change the dynamics of future negotiations.
They should initiate more effective efforts to return or resettle the quarter of a million persons displaced by the conflict, including establishment of an internationally financed property claims and compensation commission. Deploying a UN civilian police force in the deserted districts of Gali and Ochamchire could also encourage returns by enhancing security.
Mr Saakashvili should work towards consolidating democracy in Georgia, which was tarnished by last November’s crackdown. Free market reforms would also make Georgia more economically attractive and advance the cause of peace. The Georgian state has become more efficient and prosperous but less free. The US and other donors should focus on strengthening democracy – not just state-building.
A concerted effort is needed to lessen Abkhazia’s isolation and wean it away from Russia’s influence. Georgia can foster ties between Abkhazia and the outside world by implementing internationally administered free trade zones, streamlining customs procedures, liberalising port visits of merchant ships to Abkhazia and allowing a commercial ferry service to Trabzon in Turkey. The US could involve Abkhaz in Fulbright scholarships and other exchange programmes. More flexible funds are also needed for “track two” activities that bring civil society together to explore communication and co-operation.
While these measures may establish positive trends, the Georgia-Abkhaz conflict will not be resolved without a comprehensive peace agreement. If Russia is a major part of the problem, it must ultimately be a part of the solution.
Before engaging Russia, the US must undertake the difficult diplomacy of bringing Europe on board. Only after the US and EU have agreed to a joint approach should an envoy visit Moscow to make the case that a stable and sovereign Georgia is in Russia’s interest. The envoy should enumerate specific rewards if Russia uses its leverage in Abkhazia to deliver an agreement.
For example, the EU could intensify negotiations on Russia’s partnership and co-operation agreement; Russia’s potential membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Trade Organisation could be accelerated. Nato could affirm that its forces will not be used to assert Georgian control over Abkhazia.
The 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi – just 35 kilometres from Abkhazia – could be used to mobilise the parties to seek a mutually acceptable solution. If Russia is unhelpful, however, the envoy must make clear that the international community is prepared to act in concert so that Russia pays a price. Coercive measures include western countries attaching conditions to their participation in the Sochi Olympics and calling on the International Olympics Committee to review Russia’s compliance with host country standards of conduct.
Faced with a stark choice, Russia is likely to take the prudent path of co-operation over confrontation. Then the US, Russia, the EU and the United Nations could co-chair a Dayton-style negotiation until Georgia and Abkhaz authorities agree on a constitutional arrangement, security guarantees, and a Marshall Plan for reconstruction in Georgia, with special emphasis on Abkhazia.
Georgia is important to the west. So is including Russia to resolve the Georgia-Abkhaz conflict. The west’s success, and its ability to work with Russia, will not only affect access to energy resources in Europe and Asia. It will also influence Russia’s demeanour in world affairs, where strategic co-operation between the US and Russia is critical.
The writer is a senior fellow and director of the Abkhazia Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the United States
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
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