შაბათს მაქვს პრეზენტაცია თემაზე "როგორ დავძლიოთ კრიზისი",ამიტომ გადავწყვიტე მაქსიმალურად ბევრი ადამიანი ჩავრთო ბრეინსტორმინგში და კარგი პროექტი გავაკეთო.
მოდერატორებს ვთხოვ თემა 2 დღე მიცოცხლონ , რადგან ძალიან მჭირდება კომპეტენტური ადამიანებს რეკომენდაციები და იდეები.
მოდით ვისაუბროთ ქართულ ეკონომიკში არსებულ ვითაებაზე და იმ გზებზე და მექანიზმებზე, რომელებიც დაგვეხმარება კრიზისის დაძლევაში.
განსაკუთრებით მაინტერესებს რას ფიქრობენ ეკონომიკაში ჩახედული ადამიანები და ბიზნესმენები. თქვენი აზრით, რითი უნდა დაეხმაროს სახელმწიფო ბიზნესს?(შეგიმციროთ მოგების გადასახადი,გაგიუქმოთ დ.ღ.გ და უსარგებლო რეგულაციები
თუ რა უნდა გააკეთოს საერთოდ? და ყოველივე ამის შემდეგ გაზრდილი სახელმწიფო ხარჯები რითი უნდა დააფინანსოს?)
დეტალუარად განვიხილოთ ფინანსური და ეკონომიკური კრიზისი. (ფინანსური კრიზისი უფრო ნომინალურ ცვლადებზე ახდენს გავლენა და საბანკო სფეროზე აისახება, მაშინ როცა რეალური კრიზისი რეალურ ეკონომიკურ მაჩვენებლებზე ახდენს გავლენას, მაგ. როგორიცაა უმუშევრობის დონე, წარმოების შემცირება და ა.შ)
განვიხილოთ ყველაფერი რასაც ეს კრიზისი შეეხო: კომპანიები, ბანკები, household_ები, GDP, balance of payment(თავისი კომპონენტების მიხედვით). ასევე ვისაუბროთ უცხოურ დახმარებებზე, ინვესტიციების შემოდინება/გადინებაზე და ა.შ.
პროეკტ აუთლაინი მაქვს ინგლისურად:
As the crisis is unfolding, its negative effects are becoming more and more vulnerable for the Georgian economy, hence the individuals. Most probably people around you are experiencing job losses, wage cuts and frustration. However, there should be a solution to these increasing problems and we are going to contribute to finding these solutions. Based on the theory we have studied during the course and based on other information we have analyzed, your task is to find ways to solve the economic and financial problems in Georgia. More specifically, you have address the following issues:
The financial service sector crisis – banks have constrained lending to both corporate and retail markets. The reason should be lack of money and increased credit risk. Banks’ existing credit portfolio is getting risky, since there are high default rates on credits. As a result, the balance sheet, income statement and cash flows of commercial banks are getting poor day by day.
Companies – Due to the fact that bank credits are constrained, companies can not get money to finance their operations. Besides, they can not repay their credits due to low sales, which on the other hand reduces the profitability of companies and results in job cuts and wage rate reductions. Real estate developers and producers/importers of luxury goods and durables are especially damaged, since people try to save money for immediate consumption goods.
Households – reduced income is the main problem faced by households, which as already mentioned is mainly due to wage and job cuts. Due to research report by Asian Development Bank, 100,000 jobs have been eliminated as a result of ongoing crisis. It’s also been estimated, that households do not trust banks and prefer to keep money in pillows (მუთაქა არ ვიცი როგორ არის ინგლისურად). As a result, banks have limited financing from household sector and mainly rely on foreign financial institutions.
GDP – hope you remember the equation of GDP. Ty to analyze each of them. Besides search for GDP composition in terms of different sectors of the economy. i.e. how much does agriculture, construction, financial services and other sectors contribute to GDP. this might be very helpful.
Central Bank, exchange rate and inflation – Georgian National Bank, which is in charge of monetary and fiscal policy, controls the exchange rate, inflation, money supply in the economy. Due to increased demand on foreign currency, reserves of the National Bank has decreased, which makes it difficult to support the exchange rate at the steady level. Exchange rate and Inflation – Inflation, which has picked up a bit, most probably will be contained, since the prices on commodities worldwide have decreased. Oil prices have been reduced by almost 70% from the record high prices. Also, as you probably remember from your economics course there is an animal called Philips Curve, which says that there is a negative relationship between unemployment and inflation. Since the unemployment went up, the inflation has to go down.
State Budget – government collects taxes from companies and due to decrease in their profitability and business activity in the country in general, it will be very difficult to collect the taxes and meet the budget forecasts. Go to ministry of finance web page (mof.ge), or National bank’s web page (nbg.gov.ge) or refer to statistics office (statistics.ge) to see the budget revenue collection and analyze from what sources the government gets the revenue. It might be helpful to analyze the weight (importance) of each source of revenue, since when you have to find a solution, you will most probably need to cut some taxes. Having analyzed the budget, will help you to make bold and educated decisions.
Government spending – another component of GDP, is expected to decrease, since the forecasted budget deficit, will make it difficult for the government to spend generously. In this regard, it will be beneficial to find on what the government has to spend. i.e. to spend something that will have an economic return and generate additional revenues in the future. For example, spending on infrastructure will yield increased economic activity, maybe, or improved standards of living, save money for people and so on.
Balance of Payments – our favorite topic. This is very important. Exports and imports are now of paramount importance for Georgia. Increasing exports means more stability, more dollars, higher reserves, higher employment. Stimulating exports might be a very good decision. But try to be more specific. It might be a good idea to make it clear which category of products or services can be exported more easily. Import, on the other hand, which deteriorates the balance of payments is pretty dangerous for the economy. Since the FDI in the country has decreased significantly, we don’t have dollars for importing goods. The reserves of the national bank is the main source of foreign currency. As a result, decreased dollar income (FDI) puts additional pressure on reserves of the National Bank. Analyzing the categories of imported goods, might give you a lot of hint on what should be done to increase exports.
Free trade agreement – try to find out the details of free trade agreement terms with Turkey, US and EU (coming soon). How these agreements can help us to increase our exports, which industries might be promising for this, what types of products are allowed to be exported without taxes (I mean import taxes in these countries) and so on.
Foreign Aid – is what can save us for a while. Allocating this aid rationally, means putting country on a faster track out of crisis. You know how much money we have received from foreigners and how it is going to be spent. Try to analyze it carefully and make your point on their allocation.
Other stuff – there might be some additional important point which I have left out. It is your responsibility to find out what are other additional factors that might influence the crisis. You might find something really interesting.
Some more hints:
So, after you read the above, you’ll probably have some ideas about the ways we can solve the problems. However, I can give you some more hints/ideas:
Firs of all, try to analyze the above stuff carefully. This will involve searching for some quantitative information on the following web pages: www.statistics.ge, www. nbg.gov.ge, www.mof.ge, www.investingeorgia.org.
Large portion of our economy depends on bank credits, i.e. our economy is leveraged. Try to think how can banks resume lending.
How can we stimulate investors to continue investing in the country. Maybe we should offer them some additional guarantees. For example political risk hedge (read chapter 16 and 17), or reduce taxes for net FDIs, start aggressive marketing campaign, accelerate privatization process etc.
What are the promising industries in our country and how can government help them. what will be the consequences of this assistance. How can we stimulate export? maybe we can establish an import-export bank for this purpose. Try to think about this.
Try to think about allocation of foreign aid.
Free industrial zone – how can it be developed and how can we attract FDI with the help of it and taking into account the free trade agreement with EU, US and Turkey. Can we manufacture something there and than export it to these countries?
How can we stimulate budget revenue collection and direct the government spending in the correct way.
Look at the experience of countries you’ve analyzed for the previous presentation. How they managed to attract FDI, stimulate growth etc. Studying best practice can give you a really smart vision.
As a conclusion, try to be creative, but stay focused and realistic about the situation. Remember, that the purpose of this project is to assist our country in real terms. Your ideas can really be used by policymakers. I expect your devotion to this project and your best effort. We will talk about the project more during the next class.
პ.ს
ეს არის ჩემი პირველი თემა ფორუმზე, ამიტომ გამორიცხული არაა რამე შემშლოდა.
თუ მოდერატორები თვლიან, რომ თემა რამენაირად არღვევს განყოფილებას მოქმედ კანონმდებლობას, მომწერეთ და გამოვასწორებ ყველაფერს.[B][/B][B]
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ეჰ არ გამომდის ტოპიკების გამუქება და ფერის შეცვლა
This post has been edited by nikaiverioni on 25 Dec 2008, 13:06 
გადავარჩინოთ საქართველო, როგორ დავძლიოთ კრიზისი?
