Why would any Georgians support economic union with the nation’s former oppressor, Russia?
Georgians were asked whether they approve of the Georgian government’s goal of joining the E.U. and whether Georgia should join the Eurasian Customs Union. Twice as many Georgians prefer the E.U. to the Eurasian Union, 61 percent to 31 percent. This has been largely consistent over time, although support for the E.U. has had its ups and downs, with a slight decline in recent years.
Nonetheless, support for the Eurasian Customs Union has never been more than half the level of support for the E.U.
Georgians fall into four consistent groups about union membership. Here’s the largest one: 39 percent say they would vote for the E.U. and against the Customs Union (marked in the graph below as pro-E.U.). Only 15 percent would vote for the Customs Union and against the E.U. The joiners, 12 percent, support membership in both unions. And the isolationists, 5 percent, would vote against both unions. An additional 11 percent don’t know how they feel about either union, and 17 percent had responses that didn’t really have a clear interpretation.
Consistency of support for the European Union and Customs Union in Georgia. Data: National Democratic Institute and Caucasus Research Resource Centers- Georgia; Figure: Dustin Gilbreath
Why would any Georgian support joining a union with Russia? Their country has de facto lost two territories to their former Soviet rulers. Its citizens have been deported en masse from Russia. Georgians have a lively collective memory of the wrongs its northern neighbor has perpetrated against it over the past 300 years.
James Carville’s famous catchphrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” comes to mind. Seventy-one percent of those who support Customs Union membership say that membership would help Georgia’s economy. The reasoning is similar for those who support joining the European Union: 68 percent of them believe E.U. membership would strengthen the economy.
The second most common reason for supporting E.U. membership, and the third most common for supporting the Customs Union, was that it would improve the country’s security.
Those are far from surprising. Almost every time a poll asks Georgians what the country’s biggest issues are, it finds that a majority mention the economy, with the second most common response being linked to security. Georgians likely view membership – in either union – as a path towards solutions to their problems. As the Georgian national motto has it, “Strength is in unity.”
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